Recently, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, issued a statement stating that the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries have been highly prosperous in the past two years, the demand for batteries has grown rapidly, and the proportion of new energy vehicle batteries installed in vehicles has declined. With the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the increasing proportion of new energy energy storage, the demand for energy storage has surged. The rising prices of nickel and cobalt have resulted in differentiated growth of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. Lithium iron phosphate batteries account for 68% of the total, becoming a recent growth hotspot. As plug-in hybrids driven by policies continue to strengthen and pure electric trends weaken, it is expected that the growth in demand for battery installations in electric vehicles will continue to be slower than the growth in total vehicle volume.
Data show that the current proportion of power battery production in vehicles is constantly decreasing. In 2020, the installed battery installation rate of power batteries in vehicles reached 76%, in 2021 it was 70%, in 2022 it was 54%, and in 2023 it was 51%. Among them, the proportion of ternary batteries installed in vehicles is also gradually decreasing, from 80% to 49% in 2023, while the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries installed in vehicles has dropped from 71% to 54%. Both are caused by overproduction and relative inventory performance pressures. larger.
Cui Dongshu analyzed that with the development of energy storage and other industries, especially the world energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the demand for batteries in energy storage and other industries has grown rapidly, resulting in a significant decline in the proportion of batteries installed in vehicles. The growth rate of power batteries in 2021 and 2022 is lower than the growth rate of complete vehicles. This year's growth rate of power batteries is basically the same as the growth rate of complete vehicles.
Judging from the proportion of batteries installed in vehicles, the demand structure of power batteries has been changing rapidly in recent years. In 2020, pure electric passenger cars will still rank first, pure electric buses second, and pure electric special vehicles third, while plug-in hybrid passenger cars will only rank fourth. This year, pure electric passenger cars still maintain the first place, but plug-in hybrid passenger cars have risen to second place, pure electric special vehicles have risen to third place, and pure electric buses have dropped to fourth place.
In recent years, the market for pure electric buses has declined sharply, while plug-in hybrid passenger cars have shown a rapid rise. Pure electric special vehicles have maintained a relatively stable electricity consumption of around 7%.
According to the Passenger Car Sales Association, battery demand is showing a strong trend. Considering that the battery demand in the same period in August was 23.25 million kWh, the current August sales demand of 31.82 million kWh is already very high, and August hit a record High position.
Cui Dongshu analyzed that the competitive landscape of the battery market has not changed significantly in the past few years. Since the technological progress of the power battery market is relatively slow and the scale growth characteristics are relatively obvious, battery companies have obtained strong characteristics of growth in production and vehicle installation quantity. The original battery pattern has not changed significantly. Whoever invests more can gain a larger market share. Therefore, the expansion performance of major battery companies has continued to be strong; while small and medium-sized battery companies also rely on breakthroughs in technology or other aspects to gain market share. Opportunities for certain growth. Therefore, the battery landscape should be said to be relatively stable overall amid rapid growth. "However, there are relatively greater opportunities for changes in the battery industry in the future. It is becoming increasingly obvious that vehicle companies are manufacturing batteries or that vehicle companies are cooperating with related companies to jointly manufacture batteries. Battery companies will gradually form core supporting products for vehicles."
Cui Dongshu believes that the current demand for high-end electric vehicles in the market is not very strong, but there is greater demand for upgrading "Laotou Le" to small and micro cars and low-end family transportation, and the market's demand for A0-class cars and A00-class cars. It's getting higher and higher. From the perspective of supply chain issues, vehicle companies will become increasingly powerful in the future, and their control over battery companies and the upstream industrial chain will be further strengthened. At the same time, their control over downstream brand marketing capabilities will also be further strengthened. Under the new energy system, the characteristics of "the whole vehicle is king" will continue to be reflected.